The Unsettling Reason Behind High Coffee Prices

Whether you like to load up on protein coffee at Starbucks or you're partial to ordering a Dunkin' iced coffee, you've likely noticed your order is more expensive than it used to be. It turns out the price of ground roast coffee has skyrocketed in recent years. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), in January 2020, the average cost of a pound of coffee in the U.S. was about $4.17. In January of 2026, that price went up to about $9.37, resulting in your to-go coffee from a coffee shop in the U.S. rising as well — in 2021, the average cost of black coffee was $3.97 a cup. By 2024, it rose to $4.76. 

Climate change is one of many factors causing the crazy hike in prices. Demand for coffee is high, though, and extreme weather patterns in countries with the highest quality coffee — like Brazil and Vietnam — have created a lower-than-normal supply. While other top coffee-producing countries, like Colombia, Ethiopia, and Indonesia, have also been affected, Brazil and Vietnam have experienced the most severe consequences.

Brazil has experienced drought interspersed with periods of excessive rainfall, wildfires, and extreme heat. Vietnam has been dealing with typhoons, heavy rains, and warmer-than-normal temperatures. In 2025, both countries struggled to produce as much coffee as usual. Coffee companies quickly bought up what was available, driving prices higher as the supply of beans was running low. Eventually, high costs were passed down to consumers, impacting the price you pay as you swing through the drive-thru for your morning cup of coffee.

Most coffee distributed throughout the world comes from the Coffea arabica tree, and it grows best in high elevations at 64 to 70 degrees Fahrenheit. When the temperature climbs slightly, the quality of coffee beans can degrade due to ripening too fast. When the temperature spikes more severely, coffee trees can become damaged with yellowing leaves, increased pests, diseased tumors, and stunted growth. While it can certainly be a pain to pay more for coffee, those directly involved in production pay a far higher price. As climate change continues to make it harder to grow coffee in some regions, some coffee farmers are struggling with a stark loss of income, threatening their livelihood.

But climate change isn't the only factor contributing to rising coffee prices. Tariffs play a small role, and general supply chain issues have an effect as well. The good news: Experts predict that at some point in the near future, current high coffee prices could change, as a coffee production surplus is expected over the next few growing seasons.