You're Paying 40% More For Coffee This Year, But That Could Be About To Change

If coffee has seemed more expensive this year, you're not imagining it. Average retail prices for ground roast coffee have been ticking up since 2020, and they've spiked up more than 40% in the past year alone (as of September 2025), according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) via Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). Even instant coffee hasn't fared much better, with additional BLS data showing a cost index increase of nearly 22% between September 2024 and September 2025. That represents a devastating hit to the two-thirds of Americans who drink coffee daily (and, yes, caffeine withdrawal is a real thing). But don't think you're doomed to keep opening your wallet wider for a cup of joe or be forced to give it up entirely just yet. In an unexpected turn of events on Friday, November 14, President Trump announced that he would be rolling back tariffs on coffee and other common food and beverage goods.

Does this surprising announcement actually mean coffee prices will lower for consumers? Maybe. In order to understand what kinds of prices to expect in the year coming forward, it's worth taking a look at why tariffs have driven up these costs in the first place, as well as the various other factors involved in coffee inflation.

President Trump has yet to make any formal acknowledgement of his tariffs increasing economic burdens for Americans and instead insisted for months that the brunt would be paid by foreign exporters. That said, the president did briefly say that his tariffs may have increased consumer prices in some cases when asked about it by reporters following the tariff rollback announcement. It's true that there are other factors involved in coffee prices (particularly weather), but the cost data in 2025 nevertheless suggest one of the main drivers of this year's coffee cost increases has been Trump's tariffs, first imposed in April 2025. Although Trump's tariffs have been speculated to change grocery shopping across the board, they jacked up U.S. coffee prices in particular by placing a baseline 10% tariff on almost all imported goods, including coffee, and imposing higher tariffs on key coffee-producing nations.

The U.S. happens to be the world's top importer of roasted ground coffee, but where that coffee comes from isn't even across the board. Trump imposed a particularly steep 50% tariff on Brazil, which supplies just under one-third of U.S. demand and is the main source of beans. A similarly steep tariff (20%) was imposed on coffee from Vietnam, another main exporter to the U.S., but Trump announced in October that this would be rolled back due to a trade deal. However, it's unclear if this has actually happened.

Even with the Trump administration rolling back tariffs, it's unlikely that coffee prices will fall to what they were in more economically sound years. According to an ABC News report, none of the tariff rollbacks actually include the three main exporters of coffee to the U.S.: Brazil, Vietnam, and Columbia. Meanwhile, Brazil's vice president has stated that the country's coffee beans will still be subject to a 40% tariff under Trump, as the rollback is only 10%.

Coffee shops likewise have their own expensive hurdles beyond just the cost of imported beans. Commercial costs have increased in recent years, as have minimum wage requirements in some cities for tipped employees (which, in most cases, includes baristas). In coffee-centric Seattle, for example, some local coffee shops announced anticipated price increases in response to a minimum wage increase in 2025. And, as the results of an NBC News survey forewarned a decade ago, coffee retail prices appear to outpace normal cost inflation when wages go up. So, while Trump rolling back tariffs can be expected to help ease some economic burdens, consumers can expect coffee prices to stay elevated as long as expenses continue to increase in other areas affecting the industry. In the meantime, there may be no better time to stock up on the best coffee bean brands than right after Trump's tariffs fall.